Driven by a convergence of positive factors—including the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the imminent resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and a sharp drop in international oil prices—port and shipping stocks surged collectively on June 15, with several hitting their daily limit up. Global maritime investment bank Fearnley Securities previously noted that amid easing geopolitical tensions, the oil tanker, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and dry bulk shipping sectors are poised to reap the greatest rewards.

On the 14th, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the U.S.-Iran agreement is "now complete." According to the deal, both sides will officially sign the documents on the 19th, after which the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

Following the news, international oil prices fell sharply. As of the afternoon of the 14th, the price of WTI crude futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped to a low of $80.25 per barrel, a decline of 5.45%. Meanwhile, August Brent crude futures on the London exchange briefly fell to $83.51 per barrel, down 4.37%.

Shipping Sector Surges as Multiple Stocks Hit Limit Up

Spurred by these dual tailwinds, the port and shipping sector opened strongly on June 15 and surged higher throughout the session.

Among them, five stocks—Phoenix Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, Nanjing Port, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Shipping—all hit their daily limit up (a gain of over 9.9%). Ningbo Marine rose 9.97%, and Air China Ocean Shipping climbed 9.94%. Other stocks, including Xingtong Co., COSCO Shipping Development, Zhonggu Logistics, and Haitong Development, also followed the upward trend.

Analysts: Oil Tankers, LPG, and Dry Bulk to Benefit Most

Just as market sentiment ran high, a research report previously published by Fearnley Securities analysts perfectly outlined the underlying logic for the benefits across different shipping sectors.

Analyst Fredrik Dybwad stated that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the oil tanker, LPG, and dry bulk sectors will be the first to benefit. He pointed out that weeks of shipping disruptions have already caused massive backlog demand and forced shipowners and charterers to divert vessels away from traditional trade routes.

"Even if the strait reopens, vessel capacity may remain tight—especially in the oil tanker and LPG sectors," he further noted. "With enormous backlog demand and a large number of ships having been redeployed due to the strait's closure, available capacity will become scarce." He also believes that the market's consensus earnings forecasts may still be underestimating the upside potential.

Fearnley Securities forecasts third-quarter VLCC earnings at $85,000 per day, which is already higher than the average analyst expectations tracked by Bloomberg. Dybwad noted that if the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operations, this figure might even prove to be conservative.

Regarding dry bulk shipping, Fearnley Securities stated that reduced geopolitical risks and improved prospects for global economic growth will be favorable for commodity demand, particularly in sectors closely tied to industrial activity. Furthermore, some of the additional coal demand generated during the Hormuz crisis may persist, supporting coal trade volumes through 2027.

However, not all sectors will enjoy the peace dividend. LNG carriers are likely to be the weakest performers in this round of the agreement. The normalization of Middle Eastern energy flows will erode the arbitrage opportunities that supported freight rates during the crisis. Coupled with ample existing capacity and a massive schedule of new ship deliveries, LNG freight rates face downward pressure.

According to foreign media reports, as of the 12th, Frontline's stock price had risen 6.5%, and Greek shipowner Okeanis Eco Tankers was up 5.2%. Conversely, Maersk fell 4.3% on the Copenhagen exchange, and Hapag-Lloyd dropped 2% in Frankfurt. As the date for signing the agreement approaches, the market will closely monitor the subsequent performance of shipping stocks and the actual changes in freight rates across various sectors.